According to the non-ferrous metals industry climate index, since 2014, the non-ferrous metals boom index has risen from 48.6 points at the beginning of the year to 56.9 points in September. Generally speaking, the first quarter is located in the “cold” interval and the second quarter is from the “cold” interval. The transition to the "normal" range; the third quarter remained in the "normal" range. From the perspective of the changes in the operation of the aluminum industry in China, the structural adjustments were further advanced in the first three quarters of 2014. However, the differences in the trends of the smelting and processing industries became even more pronounced. The main manifestations were: the aluminum smelting industry remained “cold” and the aluminum rolling process. The operation of the industry is in line with the monitoring results of the non-ferrous metal boom index.
An Interpretation of the Operation of the Aluminum Industry from January to August 2014
Combined with the analysis of the China Non-Ferrous Nonferrous Metals Industry Climate Index, the operation of the aluminum industry is mainly characterized by the continued slowdown in production growth, steady progress in the adjustment of the layout, further optimization of the investment structure, and the escalating smelting and processing efficiency. Specific analysis is as follows:
(I) Production growth continues to slow down
From January to August 2014, national alumina production reached 30.6 million tons, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year, which was 5 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. Electrolytic aluminum production was 15.55 million tons, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year and 0.6 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. The output of aluminum was 30.82 million tons, an increase of 19.3% over the same period of last year and a decrease of 5.8 percentage points from the same period of last year.
(II) Steady progress in layout adjustment
Alumina production capacity is mainly distributed in areas rich in bauxite resources; electrolytic aluminum production capacity in general continues to shift from high-غير مجاز مي باشدt areas in the east and central regions to energy-rich western regions; aluminum processing capacity is gradually supplied from the consumption areas to raw materials. Distribution. Among them, the adjustment effect of electrolytic aluminum industry layout is the most significant. From January to August 2014, the output of electrolytic aluminum in western China increased by 13.3% year-on-year, 5.7 percentage points higher than the national average. In particular, the total production in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia and Qinghai reached 8.53 million tons, an increase of 15% year-on-year, and 7.5 percentage points higher than the national average.
(III) Further optimization of investment structure
China's investment in fixed assets in the aluminum smelting industry has declined since 2013, and the rate of decline has accelerated in 2014. From January to August 2014, China's aluminum smelting industry (including electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and recycled aluminum) completed a fixed asset investment of 35.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.9%, and aluminum extrusion processing industry completed a fixed asset investment of 118.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.1. %. It can be seen that the overheating of investment in aluminum smelting has been eased under the joint action of the Guofa No. 41 document and other regulatory policies and the market forcing mechanism. The investment structure of the aluminum industry is being extended to the downstream and the structural adjustment has been continuously optimized.
(D) The unwrought aluminum imports and exports are basically flat
With the expansion of non-alloy aluminum imports, the import volume has increased significantly; driven by the external demand, export volume of aluminum alloy continues to rise. From January to August 2014, imports of unwrought aluminum were 310,000 tons, up 37.6% year-on-year, of which non-alloyed aluminum imports were 250,000 tons, up 62.8% year-on-year, and aluminum alloy imports were 60,000 tons, down 16.9% year-on-year; The export of aluminum was 440,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%, of which non-alloyed aluminum exports were 80,000 tons, an increase of 25.4% year-on-year, and aluminum alloy exports were 360,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%. It can be seen that the import and export of unwrought aluminum are basically the same, net imports of non-alloyed aluminum are 170,000 tons, and net exports of aluminum alloy are 300,000 tons.
(5) Adjustment of the import structure of aluminum resources
The policy of banning the export of bauxite from Indonesia has not changed. The amount of bauxite imported from Indonesia has been reduced to zero since April 2014. The import structure of China's aluminum resources from overly dependent on Indonesian bauxite is gradually changing, mainly reflected in: bauxite imports fall, sources are relatively scattered, Australia replaced Indonesia as the country's largest importer. From January to August 2014, the import of bauxite was 25.11 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 45.6%. Among them, imports from Australia, Brazil, and Ghana accounted for 35%, 23.7%, and 23.5%, respectively. At the same time, the number of alumina imports has increased significantly. From January to August 2014, the import of alumina was 3.58 million tons, an increase of 76.6% year-on-year.
(VI) Increased differentiation of benefits in upstream and downstream industries
Despite the rebound in aluminum prices in the third quarter, due to supply pressure, the recovery rate is limited. The average aluminum price is still lower than the average غير مجاز مي باشدt of the electrolytic aluminum industry, and the aluminum smelting industry's efficiency has further declined. From January to August 2014, the aluminum smelting industry suffered a loss of 10.1 billion yuan, which represented a loss of 4.6 billion yuan over the same period of last year. Benefited from factors such as low aluminum prices and stable demand, aluminum rolling processing profit was 27.7 billion yuan, an increase of 9.2% year-on-year.
The outstanding features of the aluminum industry in the third quarter of 2014
(I) Electrolytic aluminum companies seek ways to use electricity
In the production غير مجاز مي باشدt of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in China, the غير مجاز مي باشدt of electricity is high and the proportion exceeds 40%, resulting in electricity prices becoming the decisive factor for the competitiveness of China's electrolytic aluminum enterprises. At present, there are mainly four kinds of electricity sources for electrolytic aluminum enterprises: public network power supply, self-owned power plant and public network connection and power supply, captive power plant plus local area network power supply, and direct power purchase. Except for the local area network, the other three types of power consumption are affected by the public network. In the current situation where the power grid is highly monopolized, most enterprises can only passively accept the net fee proposed by the power grid. Only a few large-scale enterprises that have a prominent influence on the local economy can obtain relatively low net fee. Therefore, in some areas where conditions permit, there are some companies that plan to try to change the traditional power supply mode and explore the proper implementation of local area networks to reduce the غير مجاز مي باشدt of electricity.
(B) A strong rebound in aluminum prices at home and abroad, but lack of power
In the third quarter of 2014, Shanghai Aluminum experienced a strong rebound, rising from 13,360 yuan/ton in early July to 1,540 yuan/ton in early September, a new high during the year, or a 2.3% increase. However, in the process of price rebound, with the resumption of production of some closed production capacity and the restart of major repair slots, there was no fundamental improvement in the supply and demand fundamentals. The aluminum price recovery momentum was insufficient and fell to 13,755 yuan/ton in the third quarter of the third quarter.
(C) The price of aluminum resource products rose sharply
In the third quarter of 2014, the average domestic spot price of alumina rose from 2,400 yuan per ton in early July to 2,800 yuan per ton at the end of September. Especially in September, domestic alumina prices rose rapidly and rose by nearly 400 yuan per ton from the previous month. . In the third quarter, the decline in coal prices has somewhat eased the غير مجاز مي باشدt pressure caused by the increase in alumina prices in electrolytic aluminum companies.
Current aluminum industry faces difficulties and related suggestions
In view of the current basic conditions and characteristics of the aluminum industry, there are still three issues that restrict the healthy development of the industry, as follows:
(I) Resolving the Contradiction in the Overcapacity of Electrolytic Aluminum Faces Many Obstacles
Resolving the problem of overcapacity in electrolytic aluminum is still one of the key tasks of the aluminum industry. At present, new production capacity has been controlled, and backward production capacity has basically been phased out before the end of the year. However, the issue of high غير مجاز مي باشدt production capacity withdrawal still exists. The withdrawal of high-غير مجاز مي باشدt production capacity in the eastern part of the country faces many obstacles, mainly involving corporate debt, banking, staffing, local finance, the impact on the upstream and downstream industrial chains, and historical legacy issues.
Therefore, it is recommended that the country establish operability supporting policies in terms of tax deductions and exemptions, debt exemptions, and employee compensation.
(II) Insufficient guidance and support for expanding application policies
The expansion of aluminum applications is the most fundamental and effective measure to resolve the excess production capacity of electrolytic aluminum. In recent years, we have conducted a lot of research on promoting aluminum applications. It has been estimated that if the application of aluminum alloy formwork and fencing panels in all aluminum trailers and construction areas in the transportation industry can be realized, the consumption of 20 million tons of aluminum can be increased. However, the above-mentioned consumption still needs to be guided and supported by the policy. For example, due to the objective existence of issues such as large investment in production, high selling prices of vehicles, and the need to strengthen the management of the transportation industry, aluminum trailers have encountered difficulties in expanding market applications.
To this end, it is proposed to establish a "major special project for promoting aluminum applications" and provide support and advancement from the aspects of finance, market, and standards, and expand the application of aluminum.
(III) The security of aluminum resources will have a certain impact on the aluminum industry
The global bauxite resources are very rich. However, in recent years, the degree of foreign dependence on primary aluminum resources in China has remained at around 50%. In view of Indonesia's ban on the implementation of bauxite export policy, the demand for this part of bauxite will be ensured by looking for other countries' resources. However, most bauxite rich and high grade areas have problems such as long distances, poor infrastructure, and unstable political environment.
Therefore, it is recommended that overseas enterprises that go overseas for resource development or factories with alumina factories in countries and regions where conditions are established should support certain overseas investment policies, including finance, credit, foreign trade, etc., in order to increase the amount of resources and resources overseas. Supply, ease the supply pressure of domestic bauxite, and ensure the sustainable development of China's aluminum industry.
2014 aluminum industry trend forecast in the fourth quarter
In September 2014, the leading index for the non-ferrous metals industry was 86.5 points, which has declined for the third consecutive month, indicating that there is a downward pressure on the recent operation of the non-ferrous metals industry. At the same time, combined with the analysis of the operation of the aluminum industry in the first three quarters of 2014, the aluminum industry will not experience a trend shift in the fourth quarter of 2014. It is initially expected that the output of aluminum products will grow steadily, but the increase will fall. In 2014, the output of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum will reach 46 million tons, 24 million tons, and 47 million tons, respectively, an increase of 4%, 9%, and 18%, respectively, compared to 2013. From the perspective of layout, electrolytic aluminum production capacity will continue to shift to the west. The structural adjustment of the aluminum industry will continue to deepen, investment in the aluminum smelting industry will continue to decline, and investment in the aluminum processing industry will grow steadily. Aluminum prices at home and abroad will remain at a low level. Even if there is a periodic rebound, the recovery rate will be relatively limited. Aluminum consumption will still be based on the domestic market. Affected by the macro policies of major aluminum consumer industries such as real estate and autos, the growth rate of aluminum consumption is relatively stable.
